Chris Sloan in Montreal Duval
Bombardier is not new to game changing aircraft. 20 years ago,
Bombardier Aerospace first changed the game, and indeed created a new
category of airliners – the first modern 50 seat “Regional Jet”, with
the CRJ100/200 series. With the first entry into service of the Canadair
Regional Jet CRJ100 and CRJ200 in 1992 and 1996 respectively,
Bombardier’s RJs became a phenomenal success for both the manufacturer
and their airline customers. Indeed by the time production concluded in
2006, a total of 938 examples of both types were in operation. In the
low fuel price environment and economic high gear era of the 1990s, the
CRJs became much sought after by passengers and airlines as replacements
for turbo-prop equipment such as the ATR series and ironically,
Bombardier’s Dash 8, which would both later undergo a renaissance. In
spite of their fairly high cost-per-passenger mile, The CRJs opened up
new city pairs, new levels of comfort and smoothness (compared to the
turboprops), bought jet service to smaller markets, and took regional
airlines such as American eagle, SkyWest, and ASA to new heights. The
CRJ’s success spawned their chief Brazilian competitor, Embraer to
launch their own competitors in the 37-50 seat category in the form of
the ERJ 135/145, launching service in late 1996.
The small regional jet party came to an end in the 2000s as 2
recessions, post 9/11 air traffic collapse, deteriorating airline
balance sheets, and most of all sharply escalating fuel prices
particularly in 2008 sealed its fate. To put things in perspective, a
gallon of jet fuel cost bottomed out a $.30 USD in January, 1999; peaked
at $3.89 per gallon in July, 2008; and stands at $3.09 in January 2013.
Even adjusted for inflation, this is 7.5X increase.
Airlines began to not only reduce flying the first generation
35-50 seat regional jets, but wrote their values down to zero in many
cases. They are being grounded en mass. Their former passenger fans have
abandoned them, especially in the face of newer larger RJs and the fact
that airlines used their RJs on some very long stages as they replaced
mainline operations. As proof of this trend, according to “The Wall
Street Journal” Delta has limited the 50-seaters to trips of a maximum
of 2 hours or 700 miles. The few airlines that created branded services
based on these expensive to operate regional airliners such as ACA’s
Independence Air and ExpressJet’s self-branded service learned the hard
way that these small RJs couldn’t compete on a cost-per-passenger basis
and they folded their wings. Ironically, the aircraft the smaller RJs
replaced such as the Dash 8, Q400, ATR-42, and ATR-72 in turn replaced
the RJs. One study calculated that the use of a 50-seat Regional Jet
would break even at 45 (out of 50) passenger seats compared to the
Q400′s 35–36 seats (around 55% breakeven load factor). Most short-haul
routes are less than 350 miles, so the time spent on taxiing, takeoff
and landing overrides an RJ’s speed advantage. As the Bombardier Q400′s
414 mph cruise speed approaches jet speeds, short-haul airlines can
usually replace a regional jet with a Q400 without changing their
gate-to-gate schedules. Such was the case as even long-time successful
Alaska Air subsidiary Horizon Air was forced to convert its all RJ fleet
to an all Q400 fleet. Alternately, some airlines such as Delta upgraded
their smaller CRJs to Boeing 717s purchased from Southwest, following
the AirTran merger.
Bombardier was first to explore the possibility of larger RJs,
first considered purchasing the struggling Dutch manufacturer Fokker to
gain access to the F-100 line. Then they looked at the BRJX, “Bombardier
Regional Jet eXpansion” with a similar configuration to the CSeries
with 2-3 seating and under-wing engines. Instead Bombardier opted for
the conservative route: choosing to stretch, re-engine, and re-wing the
CRJ200 into the CRJ700/900 line with maximum seating of 78 and 90 seats
respectively. The CRJ700 entered service in 2001 with Brit Air while the
CRJ900 entered service in 2003 with Mesa Air. In December 2010
Bombardier began delivering the 90-104 passengers stretched CRJ1000 to
launch customers Nostrum and Brit Air. With over 730 deliveries and
orders as of December, 2012 the CRJ 700/900/1000 series is an
unqualified success. Not one to be complacent and in response to the
E-Jets, Bombardier launched an enhanced CRJ700/900 NextGen series in
2008. The stretch CRJs are capable of being fitted with First Class
cabins and Wi-Fi and are a substantial improvement over the initial
CRJ100/200s in efficiency and comfort, though the narrow 2-2 cross
section remains unchanged. Indeed, this line has been the cash cow for
Bombardier Aerospace, taking over for the CRJ200.
Embraer chose to answer with an entirely new design: the E-Jets
whose success would eventually spur the CSeries. The E-170 was built to
compete with the CRJ700 and the E-175 was built to compete with the
CRJ-900. They featured under-wing engines and wider fuselage then their
competition. The E-170/175 first entered service respectively in 2004
with LOT and 2005 with Air Canada. With this success under its belt,
Embraer leaped frog Bombardier with the stretched, new-winged, and
larger engine E-190 and E-195, in essence creating a new class of
aircraft. The E-190 and E-195 featured seating up to 114 and 122
passengers respectively. Jet Blue took delivery of its first E-190 in
2004 while FlyBe began the E-195 operations shortly after. The E-190, in
particular, has emerged as the most popular of the E-Jets. The upsized
E-Jets upstaged their secondary downsized competitors the Airbus A318,
Boeing 737-600, and Boeing 717 (MD-95). These aircraft weren’t very
successful and have basically been discontinued. Combined, the E-Jets as
of December 2012 have 908 deliveries and 1093 firm orders with the bulk
of the market concentrated in the larger E-190/195s. Clearly Embraer
had the edge and near monopoly, particularly in the larger class RJs.
With momentum shifting to its formidable competitor to the South,
Bombardier needed to not only respond, but had to respond big with a
game changing design.
Bombardier initially announced the CSeries (then known as the
C110 and C130) in March 2005. The new CSeries would be the first RJ to
access the next vanguard of aviation technology such as a high
percentage of composites and new lightweight lithium aluminum for its
wings and fuselage, and very fuel-efficient high-bypass geared turbofan
engines under the wing. Looking closer, the majority of the fuselage
would be constructed out of a new lighter weight lithium aluminum. The
empennage, tail-cone, wing, and horizontal/vertical stabilizers would be
constructed of composites. Bombardier didn’t feel the additional
lighter weight full composite fuselage would justify the additional
production challenges and costs, especially on a shorter-range jet. In
retrospect, this seems like a smart decision. The
smaller C110, with up to 125 seats, would compete directly with the
E-195, and secondarily with the Boeing 737-600, Airbus A318, and Boeing
717. The C110’s 125 maximum passenger capacity would be comparable to
the E-195’s 122 max passenger capacity. The CSeries would have a wider 5
abreast cabin width of 10.75 feet compared to 9 feet wide and 4 abreast
seating in economy in the E-195, allowing the CSeries to have wider
seats and/or aisles. In terms of passenger appeal 80% of seats would be
on an aisle or window, but the middle seats would have the potential to
be larger and/or have larger arm rests. It would feature larger windows
then any other airliner except the 787 Dreamliner measuring 11 X 16
inches. The C110 maximum seating capacity would be slightly less then
the A318’s 132 passengers and 737-600s 130 passengers. However, the C110
would be 12 and 13 feet longer respectively then the A318 and 737-600
respectively. The CSeries’ 5 abreast cabin, seating in economy and 10.75
cabin width, would be quite a bit narrower then the 737’s 6 abreast 11
feet, 7 inches cabin and the A318/319/320’s 6 abreast 12 feet, 2 inches
cabin.
The 2nd variant, the C130, at 124 feet, 10 inches,
would be 9 feet and 10 inches longer then the shorter 115 feet long,
C110. The wingspan of both aircraft, however, would both be the same at
115 feet. The stretched C130, with initially up to 135-145 seats would
compete with the Boeing 737-700’s 148 maximum seats and Airbus A319’s
142 maximum seats. However, there hasn’t been significant new interest
in aircraft of this sizie: the 737-700 Max has no orders at press-time
and the Airbus A319 Neo has just a handful due to improved economics
with the larger aircraft moving forward. Thus, the CS300 isn’t yet a
direct competitor to the A320 / 737 family just yet. With the larger
CSeries meeting and in many cases exceeding its competition, this
clearly signaled Bombardier’s intentions to take on the big boys in
Seattle and Toulouse, not to mention it’s arch-nemesis in Brazil. It is
clearly viewed as a threat however. Airbus is rumored to be selling
A320s at prices similar to the CSeries 300 to prevent the nascent
Canadian aircraft from encroaching into its market.
In spite of lining up the required financing and support from the
governments of Canada, its home Province of Quebec, and the UK,
Bombardier put the CSeries program on hold on January 31, 2006 after
failing to secure enough orders to move ahead. Bombardier’s attention
shifted to the CR1000. Just a year later on January 31, 2007, Bombardier
restarted work on the CSeries. The aforementioned specifications and
dimensions were locked in and the real development and marketing began.
Late that year, Bombardier announced that an entirely new engine – the
Pratt and Whitney PurePower Geared Turbofan would be the exclusive power
plant for the plane.
On February 22, 2008 the CSeries was officially made available
for marketing to airline customers. Even amidst a deteriorating economic
backdrop but perhaps spurred on by the sharply spiking fuel prices,
Bombardier announced the official launch of the CSeries on July 13, 2007
at the Farnborough Air Show. The key details announced were that launch
customer, Lufthansa, had ordered 60 aircraft (including 30 options) for
its Swiss European subsidiary. Bombardier also announced that final
assembly would be an new line alongside the CRJ700/900/1000 line at
Montreal’s Mirabel Airport. Additional major components, in particular
the composite based wings and certain fuselage sections, would be built
at the Bombardier factory in Belfast, Northern Ireland. The forward and
some fuselage sections, as well as the cockpit, were supplied by
Bombardier’s St-Laurent facility. The CSeries program has several major
suppliers including Sheyyang Aircraft of China who contributes the rear
barrel, Italian 787 contractor Alenia supplies the horizontal and
vertical stabilizers, Zodiac provides the seating, bins, and cabin
furnishings; and Rockwell Collins supplies the avionics suite (more on
this later). Like the 787, these vendors reportedly have some equity and
risk-sharing stakes in the program.
In a major March 2009 announcement, the aircraft were officially rebranded the CSeries CS100 and CSeries CS300. The C110 name always seemed like it could be confused with the military freighter. The CS100 title echoes the baseline-seating configuration of 100 seats, but there’s no clear reason as to the significance of the CS300 branding or why CS200 was skipped over…for now. At the same time, airline-leasing company Lease Corporation International unusually became the launch customer of the larger CS300, ordering 17 of these in addition to 3 of the smaller CS100s.
Over the next 5 years, orders from 13 customers totaling 66 for
the CS100 and 114 for the larger CS300 accrued for a total of 180
orders, hardly a “barn burning number” but enough to move forward with
the program. Bombardier doesn’t confirm these numbers however saying
they have orders and commitments for 382 CSeries. Given the harsh
worldwide economic conditions of the last few years and this being
unchartered territory for Bombardier, the number is respectable but
needs to grow quickly to come anywhere near Bombardier’s targets.
Additional orders came from Republic Airways Holdings, Korean Air,
Braathens Leasing, AtlasJet, Latvia’s airBaltic, and ironically Ilyushin
Finance. Russia and the CIS are considered to be major markets for the
CSeries. It is hoped more order from frontline operators come forward
for the aircraft as it moves toward entry into service. United
reportedly has kicked the tires, but surprisingly there are no orders
from major Canadian carriers Air Canada or WestJet as of yet.
Key to this gained efficiency is obviously the selection of the
engines. As mentioned before, Bombardier selected the Pratt &
Whitney PW1500G PurePower engine as the exclusive power plant for the
CSeries. Competing aircraft, such as the upcoming A320 Neo, Embraer’s
next generation E-Jets, and the Mitsubishi Regional Jet have jumped on
the “fanwagon” by ordering the PW1500G. This high-bypass geared
turbofan develops 23,300 pounds of thrust through the use of advanced
combustion technology, what P&W calls a Fan Drive Gear System, an
ultra-high 12:1 bypass ration (highest in class), fewer stages and
airfoils, and advanced nacelle technologies. These engines contribute
to giving the CSeries a maximum range of 2,950 miles, a ceiling of
41,000 feet, and a maximum take-off weight of 128,200 pounds for the
CS100 and 139,600 pounds for the CS130.
The spacious and very visible flight deck is also very advanced,
and in fact features Bombardier’s first use of sidestick three-axis full
fly-by-wire controls and a new auto-throttle system. The Rockwell
Collins Avionics Suite features the now compulsory large LCD displays,
dual FMS (Flight Management System) with optimized control and display
functions, dual CCD (Cursor Control System), datalink, sensed electronic
checklist, and Cat llla autoland abilities. Optional
features include single or dual EFB (Electronic Flight Bag), Cat lllb
autoland capability and HUD (Single/ Dual Head Up Display) to optimize
flight preparation, operation and mission completion. Key to efficiency
in this category is the new RNP0.1 technology that allows the CSeries
precise fly routes, continuous descent, optimized missions and
approaches, and reduced emissions and noises. In another spark of
ergonomic innovation, the radio panel is integrated into the
glareshield.
Until the arrival of the Embraer’s E-Jets, the passenger experience in RJs was often ignored. The E-Jets set a new standard with their 2-2 abreast cabin that allowed for wider seats then even the A320s and 737s. They were also designed for seatback IFE from the start. The CSeries claims to bring a wide-body feel to a narrow-body class with its cabin allowing for 5-10% wider seats (with the middle seat being 10% bigger then the aisle or window). Like the 787 and upcoming A350XWB, the CSeries boasts cabin enhancement features most of which are entirely new to its class: larger windows, dynamic LED mood-lighting, upsized overhead binds offering 20-25% more volume than its narrow-body competition, and a lower cabin altitude.
The rollout, billed as a Program Update, was held at Bombardier’s
Montreal Mirabel manufacturing facility where all the company’s
commercial airline production operations are now concentrated. The
packed house of 200 journalists, analysts, customers, and VIPs were
joined by an event simultaneously taking place at Bombardier’s wing
manufacturing facility in Belfast, Northern Ireland. Video packages
from major suppliers around the world were also part of the mix. The
entire event was webcast to the world. Mike Arcamone, President
Bombardier Commercial Aircraft and Rob Dewar, vice-president and general
manager of the CSeries development program presided over much of these
announcements in a clearly excited, but well-paced, emcee fashion. With
dramatic lighting and slide presentations in French and English, this
being Quebec after all, the program began with a number of product
updates to be shared.
In the first of the morning’s big announcements, Bombardier
confirmed the rumored launch (first reported in November, 2012 by Flight
Global) of its new 160 seat extra capacity option. This option,
available in all CSeries CS300 models will be achieved by reducing seat
pitch to 28” using Zodiac slim-line seats and adding an extra set of
emergency exits over the doors. This option ups the original maximum
capacity of 135-45 seats. Air Baltic of Latvia will be the first of the
three launch customers of this option, but will operate their aircraft
in the 148 seat range. With the extra capacity option, Bombardier claims
an 8% increase in seat economics over the baseline CS300. Firing a shot
at Boeing and Airbus, the Canadian manufacturer boasts a
passenger-seat-mile-cost comparable to 180 seat aircraft such as the
737-800 and A320. This is a key point as the lower capacity 737-700 and
Airbus A319s are achieving fewer and fewer new orders. Perhaps not
wanting to completely provoke the competition, the Bombardier executives
did reiterate that the sweet target spot of the CSeries remains the
100-149 seat market, however. The sweet spot of the market is 160-200
seats of the 737-800 and A320 and Aracome says “if we ever decide (to
stretch). We have the capability”. Indeed, this has been a hallmark of
Bombardier with the CRJ series.
The inevitable questions concerning firm orders and break-even points came up. Arcamone would only say that they have 180 firm orders booked though they confidently expect to have 300 orders from 20 customers firmed up by the time the CSeries 100 enters service in mid-2014. They would not breakdown the ratio of orders between the CS100 and CS300 but it is thought the larger, more cost-efficient model outsells its baby brother by more then a 2:1 margin at this point. Even though Lufthansa and their Swiss European Airlines is the launch customer, they also would not officially disclose who would fly the CS100 first at EIS, saying it is an “undisclosed customer”.
The program timeline indicates all the aforementioned dates remain on track, with the CS100 still expected to take its first flight by June 30, 2013 and the flight-testing program to begin shortly thereafter. EIS will be mid-2014. The CS300 first flight and EIS is still in the 2014/2015 timeframe respectively. A key piece of news toward meeting this timeline is the announcement that Canadian aviation authorities had certified the new P&W 1500 turbo-fans and that 2 had been delivered to Bombardier.
The program updated indicates systems and integration are right
on schedule. The major headline came from Belfast where on Saturday
March 2nd, the carbon-fiber wing passed its upload gust test
on the static test aircraft (CAST) where it was pulled upwards of 5 feet
from its standard dihedral angle. The next update concerns “Aircraft
0”, the Integrated System Test and Certification Rig (ISTCR), which
tests flight surfaces, landing gear, hydraulics, and electrics simulates
the forces and conditions the airplane will have in service. It is
equipped with 85% of the components on an actual aircraft, always
staying ahead of the flight test program. Bombardier announced that 99%
of pre-FTV 1 first flight tests are complete. This rig will be used
continuously after EIS to improve the reliability of the aircraft. This
is controlled from a full cockpit overlooking the rig.
After all the briefings concluded, the crescendo arrived. With
the theatrics of a Las Vegas show, the projection screen lifted to
reveal FTV-1, the first CSeries. Bathed in a dramatic dark blue light
and smoky dry ice effects, de-emphasizing its unpainted “green” state
and flanked by proud Bombardier employees, the aircraft received a
standing ovation for its first performance. Some may argue the program’s
long-term prospects but even in this un-finished state (with missing
fairings), everyone agreed the aggressively sculpted aircraft looked
beautiful, and was practically begging to fly. Of course, it was a bit
of a surprise that Bombardier didn’t paint their first aircraft in a
flashy livery as others have done, and it is unknown whether to what
extent it will be painted for the first flight. To their credit of not
hiding anything, Bombardier did raise the house lights so the audience
could see the detail of the still impressive unfinished aircraft. Almost
instantly following the event, workers surrounded the aircraft and
resumed their round the clock 3-shift schedule to get the aircraft
airworthy.
Virtually all recent commercial aircraft programs timelines have
slipped and the CSeries is no exception, though certainly its much less
complicated supply and manufacturing chain has thus far led to much
fewer and shorter delays then the admittedly much larger and more
technologically demanding Airbus A380 and Boeing 787. The first flight
of the C100 was originally confirmed for the second half of 2012 and
then December 2012. Deliveries were confirmed to begin by the end of
2013. With roll out on March 7, 2013 the first flight date has obviously
slipped but is pegged to be no later than June 30th. First
power-up is expected within 2 weeks. If the 12-month flight test and
certification program remains on schedule, deliveries will commence in
mid-to-late 2014. The C300s timeline is about a year later with first
flight in 2014 and deliveries commencing in 2015. Of course, the
just-in-time delivery, lean manufacturing process, the successful
activation of the pulsing/moving production line, and the dependability
of the CSeries’ suppliers will impact this as well.
A big question is how competitors A, B, & E will respond once the
aircraft enters service. In response to the CSeries, Embraer considered
the idea of a fresh design, but as Bombardier did with its
CRJ700/900/1000 series instead chose the conservative route. They
announced they would counter the CSeries with updated 2nd
generation versions of their E-Jets, further amortizing the costs of the
platform. The new E-Jets, announced in 2011, would feature a slightly
stretched fuselage, a new composite based wing, and taller landing gear
to accommodate a much more fuel-efficient Pratt & Whitney geared
turbofan engine, similar to that of the C-Series. According to “Flight
Global”, Embraer has said the next generation E-Jets tentatively titled
the 198, should appear between 2016-2018 but these haven’t been
confirmed.
With Boeing and Airbus both choosing to go with their next generation 737 Max and A320 Neo versions of their cash cow aircraft instead of fresh designs, Bombardier looks to have the technological edge in the lower capacity portion of this market at least until the middle of the 2020s. Claiming 20-25% increases in fuel efficiency without resorting to more vanguard technologies that they claim is more apparent in the long haul and could threaten their current cash cows, Boeing and Airbus bowed to their shareholders and airlines who wanted a quicker solution and also chose the conservative route. This is perhaps understandable given all the challenges and costs of brining the new technologies to market in aircraft such as the A380 and 787. Of course, that timeline could change if the CSeries proves to be a success and is further stretched to compete with the heart of Boeing and Airbus: the Boeing 737-800, 737-8 Max and Airbus A320, A320 Neo. Airbus in particular is known to take the CSeries as a serious threat. It is reportedly being particularly aggressive at trying to inflict serious injury on the program with aggressive pricing to dissuade customers away from the CSeries. In a nod to not wanting history to repeat itself, Airbus is said to believe Boeing wasn’t aggressive enough in warding off the Airbus A320 at its birth and doesn’t want to be in the same position vis-à-vis Bombardier.
On Thursday March 7, 2013 Bombardier
introduced to the world what it and its customers believe is a game
changing line of aircraft, the Bombardier CSeries. This ultra fuel
efficient, partial-composite / advanced aluminum construction, ducted
turbofan line of aircraft, with advanced 787 Dreamliner like cabin and
passenger experience features is the first “clean sheet design” regional
/ short-to-medium haul category in a decade. Even more significantly,
it attempts to create a new successful class of aircraft that could one
day rival the duopoly of the Boeing 737 and Airbus A320 families.
Back to happier times when they were
flush with cash, healthy backlogs, ambition, demands from airlines for
additional capacity, and perhaps even some clairvoyance as noted above,
Bombardier and Embraer set their sights on larger designs. This
foresight turned out to be correct as the market in the larger category
of RJs continues to be healthy even as the smaller RJs precipitously
decline. In the last 10 years, passenger traffic on RJs (classified as
planes from 30-90 seats) has more than tripled according to the
Department of Transportation. RJs are logging longer flights now with
some stages close to four hours and the flight distance growing by 50%.
According to a recent article in “The Wall Street Journal”, “Regional
airlines fly 64% of the takeoffs and landings at Chicago’s O’Hare
International, 74% at Seattle-Tacoma and 52% at New York’s LaGuardia
Airport. Still, the 50-seat jet, which is less fuel-efficient per-seat
than bigger regional jets, remains the backbone of regional airline
service and 43% of the entire regional airline fleet.”
In a major March 2009 announcement, the aircraft were officially rebranded the CSeries CS100 and CSeries CS300. The C110 name always seemed like it could be confused with the military freighter. The CS100 title echoes the baseline-seating configuration of 100 seats, but there’s no clear reason as to the significance of the CS300 branding or why CS200 was skipped over…for now. At the same time, airline-leasing company Lease Corporation International unusually became the launch customer of the larger CS300, ordering 17 of these in addition to 3 of the smaller CS100s.
Bombardier considers Eastern Europe, Russia, and the CIS key prospects for CSeries sales.
Even though sales haven’t set the world on fire, Bombardier conceives
us the CSeries of anything but a niche aircraft. Bridging the RJ and
737/A320 gap in the 100-149 passenger ranger, they forecast the market
to be over 19,000 aircraft and $250 billion in revenue over the next 20
years. Further, they very optimistically expect to capture up to half of
this market with the CSeries, identifying the aircraft as the future of
the company. Analysts have suggested that Airbus and Boeing are being
so competitive on pricing for their current and next generation narrow
body aircraft, that Bombardier is having difficulty being as
competitive, hence diminishing sales.
A model of the larger CSeries
variant, the CS300. A close competitor to the Boeing 737-600 and Airbus
A319, the larger CS300 is due to enter service in 2015, following a 2014
first flight.
Image from: Airchive.com
The proof will be in the pudding, and the pudding is definitely a
new recipe in the class with major technical advancements. In today’s
high fuel price environment and razor-thin profit margins, fuel burn and
operating costs are the leading consideration. Bombardier claims a 15%
cash operating costs advantage and 20% fuel burn advantage over the
E-Jets and other competition. Further, they claim a 25% direct
maintenance cost savings. Environmental benefits run a close second.
Bombardier promises the CSeries produces 50% fewer NOx emissions
relative to its competition and has a 4 times quieter noise footprint.
Bombardier achieves these gains via 70% of the airframe being
constructed of advanced materials such as composites and carbon-fiber
(though not to the extent of the 787 or A350XWB) and the next generation
engines. These technologies allow for greatly reduced weight and
maintenance. The manufacturer claims the CSeries aircraft will be up to
12,000 lbs lighter than other aircraft in the same seat category.
Importantly, the CSeries doesn’t rely on the extensive electrical
architecture as the 787 and uses traditional Nickel-Cadmium batteries as
opposed to the problem plagued lithium-ion batteries that have
bedeviled the Dreamliner.Until the arrival of the Embraer’s E-Jets, the passenger experience in RJs was often ignored. The E-Jets set a new standard with their 2-2 abreast cabin that allowed for wider seats then even the A320s and 737s. They were also designed for seatback IFE from the start. The CSeries claims to bring a wide-body feel to a narrow-body class with its cabin allowing for 5-10% wider seats (with the middle seat being 10% bigger then the aisle or window). Like the 787 and upcoming A350XWB, the CSeries boasts cabin enhancement features most of which are entirely new to its class: larger windows, dynamic LED mood-lighting, upsized overhead binds offering 20-25% more volume than its narrow-body competition, and a lower cabin altitude.
The inevitable questions concerning firm orders and break-even points came up. Arcamone would only say that they have 180 firm orders booked though they confidently expect to have 300 orders from 20 customers firmed up by the time the CSeries 100 enters service in mid-2014. They would not breakdown the ratio of orders between the CS100 and CS300 but it is thought the larger, more cost-efficient model outsells its baby brother by more then a 2:1 margin at this point. Even though Lufthansa and their Swiss European Airlines is the launch customer, they also would not officially disclose who would fly the CS100 first at EIS, saying it is an “undisclosed customer”.
The program timeline indicates all the aforementioned dates remain on track, with the CS100 still expected to take its first flight by June 30, 2013 and the flight-testing program to begin shortly thereafter. EIS will be mid-2014. The CS300 first flight and EIS is still in the 2014/2015 timeframe respectively. A key piece of news toward meeting this timeline is the announcement that Canadian aviation authorities had certified the new P&W 1500 turbo-fans and that 2 had been delivered to Bombardier.
On the manufacturing side, Bombardier
confirmed that after the first few test and production aircraft are
built in a temporary line at Mirablel, the new pulsing, moving final
assembly line opening in 2014 would be capable of producing up to 100
CSeries per year. They didn’t disclose the date they would reach this
level however. Bombardier has had lots of experience with out-sourcing
and with the simpler structure, this does seem like a realistic goal.
Additional slides highlight that the
operation Environmental Control Systems and Interiors Test Rig which
tests air systems, lighting, cabin management systems, audio, and seats
just had its galleys installed with seats to come within 2 week. At that
point, full cabin testing can begin. The EISM Engineering Simulation,
that is very similar to a training simulator minus motion, has long been
up and running and is where the test pilots are undergoing their sim
time on the ground. Another key difference is the EISM features exact
airplane components. The first motion simulator is due in 3 months away.
Everyone expected the CSeries to be rolled out but
what they didn’t expect was that Bombardier had a big surprise up their
sleeve! Minutes after the unveiling of the CS100, they dropped another
curtain to reveal 3 more flight test aircraft in some cases advanced
forms of build: FTV-1, 2, and 3. This unexpected moment drew another
round of cacophonous applause. Bombardier will have 7 FTV’s “Flight Test
Vehicles” (a “NASA” way of saying “aircraft”) in their flight testing
program: 5 CS100s and 2 CS300s. FTV-1 will be used more for aerodynamic
flight dynamics tests while FTV-2 will be heavily focused on avionics.
CS100 FTV-5 will be the first with the passenger cabin.
The CSeries’ 2nd test aircraft, a
CS100 called “FTV-2″, Flight Test Vehicle 2 will be focusing heavy on
avionics during the test program. It is one of 7 FTV’s in the flight
test program. The FTV’s were a surprise reveal at the CSeries rollout.
Image from: Airchive.com
With Boeing and Airbus both choosing to go with their next generation 737 Max and A320 Neo versions of their cash cow aircraft instead of fresh designs, Bombardier looks to have the technological edge in the lower capacity portion of this market at least until the middle of the 2020s. Claiming 20-25% increases in fuel efficiency without resorting to more vanguard technologies that they claim is more apparent in the long haul and could threaten their current cash cows, Boeing and Airbus bowed to their shareholders and airlines who wanted a quicker solution and also chose the conservative route. This is perhaps understandable given all the challenges and costs of brining the new technologies to market in aircraft such as the A380 and 787. Of course, that timeline could change if the CSeries proves to be a success and is further stretched to compete with the heart of Boeing and Airbus: the Boeing 737-800, 737-8 Max and Airbus A320, A320 Neo. Airbus in particular is known to take the CSeries as a serious threat. It is reportedly being particularly aggressive at trying to inflict serious injury on the program with aggressive pricing to dissuade customers away from the CSeries. In a nod to not wanting history to repeat itself, Airbus is said to believe Boeing wasn’t aggressive enough in warding off the Airbus A320 at its birth and doesn’t want to be in the same position vis-à-vis Bombardier.
Not to be overlooked, the 2000s have not
been kind to smooth manufacturing, testing, deliveries, on-time entries
into service, and in-flight reliability of any of these game-changing
aircraft, to wit the Airbus A380 and Boeing 787 Dreamliner. How smoothly
the manufacturing ramp up is (Bombardier projects first year production
will be 20-30 aircraft, and up to 120 a year by 3 1/2 years) how
quickly the CSeries begins its deliveries (mid 2014), and perhaps most
importantly how reliable it is once it enters service (Bombardier is
promising s 99% dispatch reliability at EIS) will determine whether this
aircraft is not only a game changer for Bombardier but for the entire
industry.
Bombardier
has changed the game before, however, and the industry knows better
then to bet against them. Responding to a particularly pointed question
from “The Wall Street Journal’s” Jon Ostrower about Bombardier taking on
the Airbus and Boeing duopoly, BCA President Mike Arcamone in a not
thinly veiled reference to the upcoming Max and Neo, said “This is a
real airplane not a paper airplane. This is not a re-engined aircraft
but a new aircraft with a proven mix of new and proven technology. We
will be there and we will win.”
Additional Resources:
- Full Photo Gallery of CSeries Rollout and Bombardier Factory Tour Here.
- Bombardier CSeries site Here.
- Bombardier Aerospace site Here.
- AirlineReporter.com story from 2011 on visit to CSeries mockup Here.
- CRJ100/200 Aircraft, Cabins, and Flight Deck Images Here.
- CRJ700/900 Aircraft, Cabins, and Flight Deck Images Here and Here.
- Embraer E-Jet Aircraft, Cabins, and Flight Deck Images Here.
- Additional Coverage coming in Airways Magazine and Airline Reporter.
- http://airchive.com/blog/2013/03/08/the-bombardier-cseries-rolls-out-but-is-it-a-game-changer/
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